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For three months, the economy by most measures has faltered. Yet the White House contest has remained locked in place, with the incumbent holding on to a slight national lead or in a virtual tie with his rival. Analysts from both parties have no doubt that absent a defining, unpredictable moment, the race will remain neck and neck until November.
That, several strategists say, means secondary issues such as health care, immigration, education, even little mentioned social issues such as abortion, guns or gay rights could make a difference when targeted to the right audiences.
Under those conditions, the advantage, these strategists say, rests with Obama.
“Part of the power of the presidency, part of the power of incumbency, is having the ability with an executive order to make rules, make effective law that is deeply satisfying to a large group of supporters,” said Steve Schmidt, Republican John McCain’s
presidential campaign manager in 2008 and top aide in President George W. Bush’s re-election operation. “Being able to deliver if you’re an incumbent president for really important parts of the Democratic party coalition, that’s an enormously important thing.”